I just finished a marathon session at Commerce that last about 16 hours. The games this weekend were not quite as good as two weeks ago, nevertheless, there were still many fish in the sea.
I am suprisingly not upset even though I posted two losses on the weekend, $2200 and $106o respectively. On the one hand, I am frustrated, frustrated because this is by far and away the worst run of cards (live or on internet) I have had for many moons. On the other hand, I am pleased that I am playing some of my best poker ever.
I think my solid play can be attributed to gained experience in deep stack play. I have played a lot of deep stack poker in the past, but in the last couple weeks I have been playing a lot and have been fortunate / unfortunate? enough to play with and observe some of the toughest guys around, absorbing how they deal with a variety of hand situations. Overall, I think I play as well as almost anybody at least in the 10-20s, its just that I keep ending up on the wrong side of luck. However, I will stick to my guns and say that its got to turn around soon. The great Brian Townsend says 'bad luck is just an excuse for bad play. There is no such thing. When you play good and the results are bad just chalk it up to variance'. Well Brian, I'll listen to you a little longer, but I will say that if you were to hire a PHD statistician to track the averages of my good vs bad hands I get, good vs bad coolers, and overall inability to hit the flop and/or draws I would think he/she would label me a statistical anomolie sitting somewhere in the 99.99 percentile to the bad.
Big pots summary as follows:
Hand #1:
The dirtiest of the bunch. I have KK UTG and decide to limp because the table is aggressive and two players to my left are solid and deep. Also, I haven't been raising much, partially due to lack of cards and partially due to the fact I don't want to be repopped and forced to pay $500 to see the flop. If I were to raise the good players would immediately put me on a small range of hands and may put pressure on me givin the right flop....blah blah blah, so I decide to hide the strength of my hand. Anway, the fish immediately to my left makes it $120 to go and suprisingly everyone folds back to me. The fish only raises with about 10 hands so I know he has a pair 9s or higher or AK/AQ. He has about $6,000 thanks to 3 earlier no brainers. He is ripe to be stacked though because he cannot lay down a big hand and has shown to overbet with quasi-vulnerable hands. For these reasons I decide to simply call hoping to get some real value with the proper flop. So flop comes down KQ10 rainbow. I check he bets $200 I call waiting to grab him later in the hand. The turn is a 9 though and in case he has JJ I don't want to bet myself out of the hand so I check and he relectantly checks so I do put him on a big hand not liking the potential straight. The river brings the Q. I fire out $500 and he hollywoods for awhile finally declaring the goon all in raise for an additional $5000 and change. I think for a second and presume he has 1010 or 99 so I call. Unfortunately he shows me QQ for quads. So ridiculas, the good ol' one outer to cost me $6000. How about a 9, 10, or K one time??? I know he put me on a straight. Of course, if I had a straight I would not be falling for his ridiculas river overbet. Anyway, when I see his hand I was in disbelief once again at how bad I am running I mean I just want mediocre luck and leave skill to dictate the rest. Lately, I feel like a guy in a streetfight trying to fend off 3 black belts with handcuffs on and my shoelaces tied...fck'n variance. As a side note, this happened to be the only set I flopped all night.
Hand #2:
Another hand from early on last night. A standard player raises from the cutoff to $80. The button reraises to $320. The button has been rather active and aggressive so by no means can I assume that he has a big pair. I look down and find QQ and decide to call as did the original raiser. At the time I had $3000 in front and both my opponents had more. The flop came down 852 all hearts. I check, the original raiser checks, and the button bets $750. This is a tough spot as I have the third best possible pair with a flush draw (as I have the Q of hearts). This player is not stupid. I know he has a big hand to bet so much on such a dangerous board into 2 guys. Nevertheless, after a little deliberation I came to the following conclusions. With such a large bet I cannot simply call to see what he is going to do on the turn because this is not a straight forward player and certainly is capable of pressuring me on the turn with a weaker hand than I held. Therefore, it was time to move all in or fold. The only hands I am crushed by are AA or KK with the heart redraw. As well, I don't really want to see AK off with a heart. However, I could be a huge favorite over JJ,1010, or even a dry A of hearts, or a bluff. Furthermore, there is a chance that if I pushed he may lay down AA or KK with no heart redraw. I know the other opponent will fold as his expressions already solidify that he hates the flop. So I say to myself, I'm not going to get pushed off this pot like I did with the 9s a couple weeks ago against the rich dude so 'I'm allin'. The guy snap calls me and my heart sunk. Sure enough he shows me AA with the heart redraw. Bonk, no miracle Q for this cowboy. Goodbye initial buyin.
Hand #3:
Also from earlier tonight. The big fish that nailed me with quads raised from UTG and a rock called. At this point, I had made a reasonable comeback and had about $8,000 in front, not even 1/3 of the fish's stack as he continued his spree of sillyness by overtighting in a 20k pot against another player...must be nice. Anyway, he raises the rock called and I looked down at 95 spades. This is the kind of hand I don't mind investing $100 more to flop a straight, flush, two pair, etc... because if the fish has an overpair I'm going to get paid and in all likelood thats exactly what he has as his raising range is so small. The flop comes down J87 with 87 of spades. I check, the fish checks, and the rock bets out $275 (note: if the fish had bet I may just call because we are so deep and givin he may not fold the last thing I want to do is jam against JJ to AA for 10k givin the way I'm running and especially givin the way he's running). The rock on the other hand is playing with about $3,500. I decide to raise and I make it $900. Screw it, I'll gamble $3,500 on this hand if I have to, eventually I have to hit at least one of these 15 out double draws. As it turns out the fish folds and the rock calls. The turn brings the 5 of clubs. At this point I am positive the rock has either QQ to AA or a big ace suited in spades, if he had a set I would have found out on the flop as he most definately would have jammed allin. He is cautious and knows I am capable of a wide range of hands and obviously is scared I have flopped something big. He has about $2500 left so I put him allin. He tanks for about 2 minutes and actually for a second I thought he was going to call, but in the end he folded. I always seem to get the no brainers. What a joke, the only way I can win any money these days is by running bluffs that almost put me into a state of cardiac arrest.
Hand #3:
The only showdown I had tonight for pots over $1,000, which is crazy for a 16 hour session. I am UTG with Q9 of hearts and limp. Again, at this time I am deep as are many others at the table including the fish and like the two other solid players, I want to hit something really big so the fish can double me up. So I limp and someone makes it $60. Such a gay raise, and not suprisingly, 6 people call. The flop comes down A52 with two hearts. The small blind leads out for $170. This player is playing about $2000 and is on luke warm tilt as he was cleaned out 30 minutes prior. I look around the table and it didn't appear that anyone was overly excited about the flop so I call hoping nobody behind me raises. Sure enough I end up heads up with donk better who I feel has a made hand and was inviting a raise from the preflop aggressor. As it turns out the 2 of hearts falls on the turn. This was the 4th flush I made all trip, unfortunately, on two of the previous 3 I was overflushed. Anyway, my opponent checks and I think for a bit and eventually make a bet of $400. My opponent shruggs then declares allin. I actually took about 2 minutes to call because it seemed very plausible that he could have been leading out on the flop with the ace high flush draw, touch on ace. As well, the previous overflushing and underquading began flashing through my mind. Thank you again LA for your lack of compassion towards those continually shat upon. After a little deliberation I told myself no way I can fold here I'm beating too many hands. Besides, if he had the A high flush he would have min raised me or wait until the river and bet out as this player would definately be lumped into that kind of amateur hour category (as for the K high flush, or any flush for that matter, I was not worried because there is no way he would have donked bet into the field on a naked flush draw against preflop action with an ace on board). As it turns out he has A5 with the A of hearts. The river pairs the 2 and finally I win a showdown hand somehow managing to escape his 11 outs.
Hand #4:
Yesterday early on in the session I picked up AK of clubs in the big blind. Some guy in mid position made it $80 and the button reraised to $230. I called as did the initial raiser. The inital raiser was $10,000 deep, the button was $3000 deep and I was around $4000 deep. The flop came down J105 with the J10 of clubs. I check the initial raiser bets $250 and the button calls. The initial raiser is a pro capable of a lot of moves. In this case, I think he was taking advantage of the text book style of the inexperienced player on the button and was implementing some kind of blocking or probing bet. The call by the text book player had me thinking he likely had AK himself, either that or was getting cute with JJ or 1010 although he seemed a little confused and nervous about the flop and the bet into him. Well, the big draws have not been kind to me, but I gotta go with this hand. Furthermore, givin the action on the flop I felt like I might be able to take it down with a check raise as I didn't feel either one of them was that strong and I could represent a set of 10s or Js. So, I check raise to $800. The initial better folds and the button thinks momentarily then declares he's allin. Oh great, I misread the hand, he must have a set, but with the money already in the middle I am pot committed to try and draw out so I call. To my delight the button shows two red queens making me about 2 to 1 to win the hand. Of course, in typical fashion, I double brick and lose out on the almost 7k pot. On a side note, I thought his play with QQ was retarded. Amazing how bad some people play. By night's end however, that same gentleman walked away up 5k. Does LA purposefully favor donks? Are they running the same software as PartyPoker? I don't know maybe its some kind of conspiracy against white Canadian folk?
Hand #5:
An aggressive fish in early position raises to $70. Two call and I call on the button with 107 of spades. The fish is about 5k deep and I have him covered. The flop comes down 1052 two spades. He continues with a bet of $200. Action is folded to me leaving just the two of us in the pot. I elect to just call with intentions to raise the turn unless it brings an A or I sense he has a huge hand. The turn brings the A of spades and I have a flush. He checks so I bet out $400. I bet pretty strong because I thought I was going to get paid by a fearful AK or AQ possibly with a spade redraw. As it turns out I get min raised to $800. I was totally suprised by this play. Under some circumstances I think I could lay down the hand right here, but this fish has shown some very irratic betting pattern, which include wierd bluff raises, double checking the nuts, and now the min raise. What does it all mean Basil? Anyway, not really sure what he has so I decide just to call, see what comes on the river and see what he does. The river is a complete dud leaving me with the 4th nut flush. He hesitates for a moment then bets $1000 on the river. Totally confused I decide to donate hoping to see trips, an AK type hand, or even a smaller flush. Nope, he shows me KQ of spades. I had only been playing for two hours on Friday, but between that hand and the AK of clubs I decided to take my $3,000 loss and leave the tables (however later on I went on to hack around in the 5/10 with Danny where I made back close to $1,000).
There are a lot of other hands gone bad but I'm getting tired so I'm going to cut it short. One quick note, I had JJ twice in my last hour of play this morning and both times the flop came AKQ with significant action.....sweet three overs.
So, in the words of White Snake 'here I go again', not really knowing what to think. In theory, I should be making a killing out here, in reality, I am up a bowl of soup and likely after expenses I am pretty darn near break even. I am not the only one having trouble though. Trav took a hit last night and after conversing with Danny and Chris they too are having their fair share of troubles (they came down for a couple days from Vegas in a buddy's car).
I'm going to catch some z's then wake up and play the $300 rebuy this afternoon. Tonight I think I'l take a night off and watch a movie in the room.
T'ill next time,
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment